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Has the climate in Soufrière changed?

Soufrière has warmed about 1°F between 1973 and 2004.

About 0.4°F per decade, measured from Soufrière's official daily weather records, 1973–2004. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Soufrière's climate has warmed faster than most other cities in Dominica.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Freezing nights
about the same
1970s
0 / yr
Recent
0 / yr
Winters about as cold as before
Average temperature
+0.8°F
1970s
78.6°F
Recent
79.4°F
A steady upward drift
Hot days above 90°F
8 more days
1970s
21 / yr
Recent
29 / yr
More days of serious heat
Rainy days
180 more days
1970s
48 / yr
Recent
228 / yr
Wetter on average

Soufrière's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1973 to 2004.

76°78°80°1973: 78.8°F1974: 77.9°F1975: 78.1°F1976: 78.1°F1977: 78.8°F1978: 78.9°F1979: 78.8°F1980: 79.0°F1981: 79.0°F1982: 78.9°F1983: 79.6°F1984: 78.6°F1986: 78.9°F1988: 79.6°F1992: 79.3°F1993: 79.5°F1994: 79.2°F1995: 79.4°F1996: 79.0°F1997: 79.4°F1998: 79.7°F1999: 79.0°F2000: 79.0°F2001: 79.6°F2002: 79.8°F2003: 79.9°F2004: 79.5°Flong-term trend1973198020002004
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

In day-to-day terms, that long-term shift shows up as about 3 more days above 90°F compared with the 1970s.

When in the year the change shows up

How much warmer each month is now than in the 1970s. Useful if you garden or care about a particular season — otherwise the headline above already has the answer.

0.0°+0.5°+1.0°+1.5°+2.0°+2.5°January: +2.2°F+2.2JFebruary: +1.7°F+1.7FMarch: +1.6°F+1.6MApril: +1.4°F+1.4AMay: +0.8°F+0.8MJune: +0.4°F+0.4JJuly: +0.8°F+0.8JAugust: +1.3°F+1.3ASeptember: +1.7°F+1.7SOctober: +1.7°F+1.7ONovember: +1.8°F+1.8NDecember: +2.3°F+2.3D

December has warmed the most — about 2.3°F. The warming runs across the whole year, not just one season.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — modelled for this location from ERA5-Land reanalysis, a ~9 km global grid, because no long-record weather station is close enough to use.

How we build these numbers →