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Has the climate in Tomakomai changed?

Tomakomai has warmed about 2.3°F between 1971 and 2020.

About 0.5°F per decade, measured from Tomakomai's official daily weather records, 1971–2020. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Tomakomai's warming is broadly in line with other cities in Japan — neither unusually fast nor unusually slow.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Freezing nights
73 fewer nights
1970s
151 / yr
Recent
78 / yr
Milder winters — fewer frosts
Average temperature
+2.0°F
1970s
44.7°F
Recent
46.7°F
A steady upward drift
Hot days above 90°F
about the same
1970s
0 / yr
Recent
0 / yr
About the same number of heat days
Rainy days
5 more days
1970s
126 / yr
Recent
131 / yr
Wetter on average

Tomakomai's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1971 to 2020.

40°42°44°46°48°50°1971: 44.3°F1972: 46.0°F1973: 45.7°F1974: 44.6°F1975: 45.6°F1976: 44.3°F1977: 44.4°F1978: 44.8°F1979: 45.0°F1980: 44.3°F1981: 43.9°F1982: 45.3°F1983: 44.5°F1984: 43.5°F1985: 44.4°F1986: 43.8°F1987: 44.8°F1988: 44.8°F1989: 46.6°F1995: 46.7°F1996: 45.1°F1997: 46.2°F1998: 45.8°F1999: 47.1°F2000: 46.2°F2001: 41.2°F2002: 45.8°F2003: 45.1°F2004: 46.1°F2005: 45.5°F2006: 46.1°F2007: 46.9°F2008: 46.3°F2009: 46.4°F2010: 47.1°F2011: 46.3°F2012: 46.2°F2013: 46.4°F2014: 46.2°F2015: 47.7°F2016: 46.6°F2017: 46.1°F2018: 46.9°F2019: 46.9°F2020: 48.3°Flong-term trend19711980200020102020
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

In day-to-day terms, that long-term shift shows up as about 44 fewer freezing nights a year compared with the 1970s.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — the official 1991–2020 climate normals from the Japan Meteorological Agency, measured at Tomakomai, about 5 km from the city centre.

How we build these numbers →