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Has the climate in Nogales changed?

Nogales has warmed about 1°F between 1982 and 2011.

About 0.5°F per decade, measured from Nogales's official daily weather records, 1982–2011. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Nogales's warming is broadly in line with other cities in Mexico — neither unusually fast nor unusually slow.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Freezing nights
7 fewer nights
1970s
33 / yr
Recent
26 / yr
Milder winters — fewer frosts
Average temperature
+1.3°F
1970s
63.2°F
Recent
64.5°F
A steady upward drift
Hot days above 90°F
16 more days
1970s
60 / yr
Recent
76 / yr
More days of serious heat
Rainy days
about the same
1970s
46 / yr
Recent
44 / yr
Rainfall pattern about the same

Nogales's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1982 to 2011.

60°62°64°66°68°1982: 63.7°F1987: 62.6°F1988: 63.1°F1989: 66.3°F1990: 62.5°F1991: 62.0°F1992: 62.4°F1993: 63.6°F1994: 63.8°F1995: 64.4°F1996: 65.1°F1997: 64.2°F1998: 63.0°F2000: 64.0°F2003: 65.7°F2004: 61.5°F2005: 65.1°F2006: 65.2°F2007: 64.6°F2008: 62.4°F2009: 65.4°F2010: 63.9°F2011: 64.8°Flong-term trend19821990200020102011
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

In day-to-day terms, that long-term shift shows up as about 3 more freezing nights a year and about 15 more days above 90°F compared with the 1970s.

When in the year the change shows up

How much warmer each month is now than in the 1970s. Useful if you garden or care about a particular season — otherwise the headline above already has the answer.

-1.0°-0.5°0.0°+0.5°+1.0°+1.5°January: +0.7°F+0.7JFebruary: -0.1°F-0.1FMarch: +0.6°F+0.6MApril: -0.8°F-0.8AMay: +0.7°F+0.7MJune: +0.5°F+0.5JJuly: +0.7°F+0.7JAugust: +0.7°F+0.7ASeptember: +1.1°F+1.1SOctober: +0.9°F+0.9ONovember: +1.2°F+1.2NDecember: +0.9°F+0.9D

November has warmed the most — about 1.2°F. The warming runs across the whole year, not just one season.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — the official 1991–2020 climate normals from CONAGUA / SMN, Mexico's national weather service, measured at Nogales (dge), about 1 km from the city centre.

How we build these numbers →