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Has the climate in Fredericton changed?

Fredericton has warmed about 9°F between 1973 and 2020.

About 1.9°F per decade, measured from Fredericton's official daily weather records, 1973–2020. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Fredericton's climate has warmed faster than most other cities in Canada.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Average temperature
+6.5°F
1970s
37.6°F
Recent
44.0°F
A steady upward drift

Fredericton's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1973 to 2020.

15°17°19°21°23°25°27°29°31°33°35°37°39°41°43°45°47°49°51°53°55°57°1973: 27.5°F1974: 29.1°F1975: 16.1°F1976: 39.4°F1977: 42.3°F1978: 39.5°F1979: 42.6°F1980: 39.5°F1981: 42.1°F1982: 40.3°F1983: 43.4°F1984: 41.4°F1985: 39.7°F1986: 39.6°F1987: 41.1°F1988: 41.1°F1989: 39.6°F1990: 42.9°F1991: 42.0°F1992: 40.0°F1993: 40.5°F1994: 41.1°F1995: 41.5°F1996: 41.0°F1997: 39.8°F1998: 45.4°F1999: 40.3°F2000: 41.7°F2001: 43.6°F2002: 42.3°F2003: 41.2°F2004: 41.3°F2005: 42.8°F2006: 43.1°F2008: 45.9°F2009: 43.6°F2010: 55.9°F2011: 51.1°F2012: 45.9°F2013: 44.8°F2014: 44.1°F2015: 43.3°F2016: 44.8°F2017: 39.0°F2018: 40.9°F2019: 36.6°F2020: 38.5°Flong-term trend197319801990200020102020
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

When in the year the change shows up

How much warmer each month is now than in the 1970s. Useful if you garden or care about a particular season — otherwise the headline above already has the answer.

-1.0°-0.5°0.0°+0.5°+1.0°+1.5°+2.0°January: +1.3°F+1.3JFebruary: +0.2°F+0.2FMarch: -0.7°F-0.7MApril: +0.2°F+0.2AMay: -0.4°F-0.4MJune: +0.6°F+0.6JJuly: +0.6°F+0.6JAugust: +1.3°F+1.3ASeptember: +2.0°F+2.0SOctober: +1.5°F+1.5ONovember: +1.6°F+1.6N

September has warmed the most — about 2.0°F. The warming runs across the whole year, not just one season.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — 1991–2020 normals computed from 23 years of daily observations at Mactaquac Prov Park, a weather station, about 18 km from the city centre. The underlying daily records come from NOAA's global station network.

How we build these numbers →