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Has the climate in Tofino changed?

Tofino has warmed about 0.9°F between 1988 and 2020.

About 0.3°F per decade, measured from Tofino's official daily weather records, 1988–2020. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Tofino's warming is broadly in line with other cities in Canada — neither unusually fast nor unusually slow.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Average temperature
+0.4°F
1970s
49.6°F
Recent
50.0°F
A steady upward drift

Tofino's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1988 to 2020.

46°48°50°52°1988: 47.4°F1989: 49.3°F1990: 49.2°F1991: 49.0°F1992: 50.7°F1993: 49.5°F1994: 49.7°F1995: 50.5°F1996: 49.0°F1997: 51.0°F1998: 50.3°F1999: 48.4°F2000: 48.6°F2001: 48.6°F2002: 48.8°F2003: 47.7°F2004: 50.7°F2005: 49.4°F2006: 49.1°F2007: 48.6°F2008: 47.7°F2009: 48.4°F2010: 49.7°F2011: 48.1°F2012: 48.7°F2013: 49.2°F2014: 50.9°F2015: 51.4°F2016: 51.1°F2017: 49.6°F2018: 50.2°F2019: 50.4°F2020: 50.4°Flong-term trend19881990200020102020
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — 1991–2020 normals computed from 30 years of daily observations at Ucluelet Kennedy Camp, a weather station, about 36 km from the city centre. The underlying daily records come from NOAA's global station network.

How we build these numbers →