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Has the climate in Tōkamachi changed?

Tōkamachi has warmed about 2.2°F between 1971 and 2020.

About 0.5°F per decade, measured from Tōkamachi's official daily weather records, 1971–2020. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Tōkamachi's warming is broadly in line with other cities in Japan — neither unusually fast nor unusually slow.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Freezing nights
44 fewer nights
1970s
80 / yr
Recent
36 / yr
Milder winters — fewer frosts
Average temperature
+1.7°F
1970s
55.6°F
Recent
57.3°F
A steady upward drift
Hot days above 90°F
4 more days
1970s
22 / yr
Recent
26 / yr
More days of serious heat
Rainy days
15 fewer days
1970s
210 / yr
Recent
195 / yr
Drier on average

Tōkamachi's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1971 to 2020.

52°54°56°58°60°1971: 55.2°F1972: 57.0°F1973: 56.2°F1974: 54.7°F1975: 55.9°F1976: 54.3°F1977: 55.6°F1978: 56.8°F1979: 57.8°F1980: 55.2°F1981: 54.7°F1982: 56.2°F1983: 55.6°F1984: 54.3°F1985: 55.5°F1986: 54.5°F1987: 56.7°F1988: 55.1°F1989: 57.1°F1990: 58.4°F1991: 56.6°F1992: 56.3°F1993: 55.4°F1994: 58.0°F1995: 56.1°F1996: 55.4°F1997: 57.0°F1998: 58.1°F1999: 57.6°F2000: 57.5°F2001: 53.7°F2002: 57.1°F2003: 56.8°F2004: 57.7°F2006: 56.4°F2007: 57.4°F2008: 57.3°F2009: 57.2°F2010: 57.5°F2011: 56.7°F2012: 56.3°F2013: 56.9°F2014: 56.6°F2015: 57.7°F2016: 58.1°F2017: 56.6°F2018: 57.9°F2019: 58.0°F2020: 58.9°Flong-term trend197119801990200020102020
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

In day-to-day terms, that long-term shift shows up as about 26 fewer freezing nights a year compared with the 1970s.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — the official 1991–2020 climate normals from the Japan Meteorological Agency, measured at Tokamachi, about 4 km from the city centre.

How we build these numbers →