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Has the climate in Fairfax changed?

Fairfax has warmed about 1.5°F between 2003 and 2020.

About 0.8°F per decade, measured from Fairfax's official daily weather records, 2003–2020. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Fairfax's climate has warmed faster than most other cities in United States.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Freezing nights
2 fewer nights
1970s
78 / yr
Recent
76 / yr
Milder winters — fewer frosts
Average temperature
+1.0°F
1970s
57.2°F
Recent
58.1°F
A steady upward drift
Hot days above 90°F
7 more days
1970s
34 / yr
Recent
41 / yr
More days of serious heat
Rainy days
10 more days
1970s
124 / yr
Recent
134 / yr
Wetter on average

Fairfax's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 2003 to 2020.

54°56°58°60°2003: 55.8°F2004: 56.8°F2005: 56.5°F2006: 58.2°F2007: 58.3°F2008: 57.5°F2009: 56.3°F2010: 57.9°F2011: 58.3°F2012: 59.2°F2013: 56.5°F2014: 55.3°F2015: 57.3°F2016: 58.2°F2017: 58.6°F2018: 57.4°F2019: 58.6°F2020: 58.7°Flong-term trend200320102020
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — the official 1991–2020 climate normals from NOAA's U.S. Climate Normals, measured at Oxon Hill (NOAA GHCN station USC00186800), about 28 km from the city centre.

How we build these numbers →