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Has the climate in Mbombela changed?

Mbombela has warmed about 2.5°F between 1999 and 2024.

About 1.2°F per decade, measured from Mbombela's official daily weather records, 1999–2024. Individual years still bounce around — some recent ones came in cool — but the long-term line has clearly risen.

Is that a lot? Mbombela's warming is broadly in line with other cities in South Africa — neither unusually fast nor unusually slow.

What has actually changed

Each card compares the 1970s (the first ten years of the record) with recent years (the last ten) — the same span the headline and the chart use.

Average temperature
+2.2°F
1970s
64.8°F
Recent
66.9°F
A steady upward drift

Mbombela's temperature, year by year

Average temperature for each year from 1999 to 2024.

60°62°64°66°68°70°1999: 66.4°F2002: 66.4°F2004: 64.5°F2005: 62.8°F2006: 61.5°F2007: 65.2°F2008: 66.6°F2009: 66.3°F2010: 67.4°F2011: 66.0°F2013: 66.7°F2014: 66.5°F2015: 68.2°F2016: 67.9°F2017: 66.9°F2018: 67.1°F2019: 67.9°F2020: 65.6°F2021: 66.1°F2023: 67.0°F2024: 67.8°Flong-term trend1999201020202024
a warmer-than-average year a cooler-than-average year

Each bar is one year. Most recent years sit above the older ones. Some recent years still came in cool — warming is a slope, not a straight climb.

Methodology & sources

Temperature — 1991–2020 normals computed from 20 years of daily observations at Nelspruit, a weather station, about 6 km from the city centre. The underlying daily records come from NOAA's global station network.

How we build these numbers →